The paradox of probability
Many of us are all too familiar with the game of tossing a coin to decide a choice, question or stake. To the Romans, it was known as ‘Ship or Head’ – a game of choosing between a ship on one side of the coin or the head of the emperor on the other. In German, it’s ‘Kopf oder Zahl’, and the most common in English is ‘Heads or Tails’. One side of the coin usually depicts a ruler’s head and the other side is called ‘tails’, normally numerical, but perhaps it could just logically be that – the opposite end of an animal from its head.
All things remaining constant (which they never ever are), the likelihood of a coin falling on either of its two sides is subject to an incredible number of variables that one would never have thought existed for such a simple game. According to some experimental research, a coin landed with the same side facing upward (as before the toss) 50.8% of the time. The large number of throws allows statisticians to conclude that the nearly one per cent bias isn’t a fluke. But I digress; so, for the sake of this story, let’s assume the odds are 50:50.
However, there is always still that infinitesimal probability that under the exact same conditions, a coin may land on its smaller, often forgotten and ignored side … its edge. When this happens, with enough momentum, it may roll away from us, and then we chase after it, eventually stepping on it if it doesn’t stop on its own. In some cultures, it is considered disrespectful to do so, to whoever’s face may be on the coin. Other experimental research has shown that it could possibly land that way 1 in 6000 times, just by flipping it and letting it land on a flat surface. That’s not that improbable! Winning the lottery has worse odds.
In relation to the above, ‘sitting on the fence’is a common idiom used in English. It describes one’s neutrality or hesitance to choose between two sides in an argument or a competition, and is not often looked upon with much respect. It apparently shows a lack of loyalty or commitment – indecision. But from a different angle, could the fence represent the edge of the coin? They are very similar, even though the former is social unpredictability, and the other is just a game?
A fence sitter may or may not lack any commitment or loyalty. He or she may just not agree with either side. They may also eventually return to the middle on occasion to contemplate and consider. Considered cowardly to many, it may also be considered quite a gift in some respects, especially if neither side of the fence is permanently angered. I consider this neutral flexibility – the empirical ability to make decisions (or not) based on multiple-angled views. So why do I liken it to the edge of a coin? The two large sides of a coin are static, whereas the edge represents movement, whether it spins on its axis or it rolls in any direction. The longevity of said actions or movements is of course, relative to how much consistent energy is provided. Perhaps it’s the same with our lives. Balance, energy, and consistency.
So, I guess we could learn to live on the edge(s) be it a coin, a career, a relationship, or a new life. Never static, never one-sided; independent and constantly finding ways to maintain momentum, lest we fall on either side and never manage to get up again. It is said we could just be the sum of our choices, as difficult as they may be.
Perhaps we just have to be like a stone … a medium-sized (even small) round smooth stone.
Publilius Syrus wisely said that “People who are always moving, with no roots in one place or another, avoid responsibilities and cares”, suggesting ‘a rolling stone gathers no moss’. Bob Dylan wrote a long song about it too, ‘Like a rolling stone …‘ This sounds quite ideal and romantic but it’s also quite existentially irritating, so maybe it’s better just to be a small round stone.
Words by Amir Yussof
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